Post-election Narratives

Post-Election Narratives Sentiment Analysis

I examine whether counties that experience more COVID cases actually supported Trump more.

10 December 2020

Campaign Evaluations

Campaigns Post-Election Text Analysis Sentiment Analysis

I examine whether Trump and Biden adhered to Vavreck's theory of clarifying/insurgent campaigns through text analysis.

30 November 2020

Post-election Reflection

Model Evaluation Post-Election

I evaluate and reflect on my (wildly optimistic) model and test hypotheses for increasing predictive power.

23 November 2020

2020 Presidential Election Prediction

Prediction Historical Data State v. National Polls Popular Vote

My final prediction for the 2020 presidential election, disaggregated by state 2-party vote share.

01 November 2020

Shocks

shocks Demographics COVID-19 Simulation

How will exogenous shocks such as COVID-19 affect election outcomes?

25 October 2020

Ground Game

Ground Game Demographics State v. National Simulation

What are the most salient factors to consider when predicting the 2020 election?

18 October 2020

Air War

Ads Binomial Logit Popular Vote State v. National Simulation

What is the effect of advertising on elections, and how can we refine our model to fit the data better than a linear regression?

11 October 2020

Incumbency

Incumbency Weighted Ensemble Federal Spending

Updating the most current model and examining the mechanisms through which incumbency may affect the incumbent party's 2-party vote share.

04 October 2020

Polls

Polls Historical Data Popular Vote State v. National

How accurately do polls predict the outcome of the election?

27 September 2020

The Economy as a Predictor

Economy Historical Data Popular Vote Prediction Model

Constructing and analyzing the predictive power of forecast models that incorporate aspects of the economy, such as GDP, real income, unemployment, inflation, and stock volume.

20 September 2020

What's in a Swing (State)?

Swing Historical Data Popular Vote Change Over Time

An analysis and discussion of two definitions of swing states and their explanatory validity.

13 September 2020