Post-Election Narratives Sentiment Analysis
I examine whether counties that experience more COVID cases actually supported Trump more.
Campaigns Post-Election Text Analysis Sentiment Analysis
I examine whether Trump and Biden adhered to Vavreck's theory of clarifying/insurgent campaigns through text analysis.
Model Evaluation Post-Election
I evaluate and reflect on my (wildly optimistic) model and test hypotheses for increasing predictive power.
2020 Presidential Election Prediction
Prediction Historical Data State v. National Polls Popular Vote
My final prediction for the 2020 presidential election, disaggregated by state 2-party vote share.
shocks Demographics COVID-19 Simulation
How will exogenous shocks such as COVID-19 affect election outcomes?
Ground Game Demographics State v. National Simulation
What are the most salient factors to consider when predicting the 2020 election?
Ads Binomial Logit Popular Vote State v. National Simulation
What is the effect of advertising on elections, and how can we refine our model to fit the data better than a linear regression?
Incumbency Weighted Ensemble Federal Spending
Updating the most current model and examining the mechanisms through which incumbency may affect the incumbent party's 2-party vote share.
Polls Historical Data Popular Vote State v. National
How accurately do polls predict the outcome of the election?
The Economy as a Predictor
Economy Historical Data Popular Vote Prediction Model
Constructing and analyzing the predictive power of forecast models that incorporate aspects of the economy, such as GDP, real income, unemployment, inflation, and stock volume.